Trump Losing Ground in This Previously Reliable Red State

By: Lauren Fokas | Published: Jun 22, 2024

With the 2024 US presidential election only a few months away, Americans, and the world, are constantly speculating who is going to win back the Oval Office: President Joe Biden or former-president Donald Trump.

Some say today’s Americans are more divided than ever before; there are those who support Biden wholeheartedly and others who couldn’t think of a better president than Trump. However, it seems that some Americans are switching sides. A new poll shows far less Ohio residents will be voting for Trump in November than did in the past.

Ohio's Has Been a Reliably Red State for More Than 10 Years

Ohio is known as a swing state as, sometimes, the majority of residents vote Democrat or Blue, and other times, they choose a Republican, or a Red president. However, Ohio has voted Red for the past decade.

The state of Ohio is highlighted in red on a US map.

Source: TUBS/Wikimedia

What’s especially interesting about Ohio is that it is known as the “beacon state,” as every president its residents have chosen has won the election since 1964. With the exception of 2020.

Ohio Voted for Trump in Both 2016 and 2020

The majority of Ohioans voted for Republican candidate Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Of course, in 2016 Trump won the presidency, but in 2020, he was beaten by Biden.

A finger holding a sticker which reads “I Voted”

Source: Freepik

In 2016, 51.7% of Ohio residents voted Red, and a whopping 53.3% chose Trump in 2020. However, it now seems that the controversial leader is losing support in the Buckeye State.

New Survey Shows Fewer Ohioans Are Voting Red in the 2024 Election

In a quite surprising turn of events, the most recent Marist Poll shows that several former Trump supporters in Ohio seem to be switching sides. Of the 1,137 voters in the state, Trump leads by 48% against Biden’s 41%.

Two people seated at a large wooden table are pictured going over economic data

Source: Freepik

While that still means that Trump will likely win the state, the 7% margin is extremely telling.

Why Is Trump Losing Voters in Ohio?

In both 2016 and 2020, Trump crushed Biden in Ohio by 8 points, which means thousands of former Trump supporters are abandoning the Republican former president.

Former President Donald Trump smiling onstage at a public speaking event, wearing a blue suit and a red tie

Source: Wikimedia Commons

While the polls did not ask those surveyed why they were voting for their preferred candidate, one theory is that Trump’s recent guilty verdict has led some to the other side.

Trump Recently Became the First Convicted President in US History

On May 30, 2024, Donald Trump became the first former president to be found guilty of a crime in US history.

Donald Trump scowls while sitting in courtroom for New York City civil fraud trial

Source: Pool/Getty Images

A jury in New York decided that Trump was, in fact, guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree. The former president will be sentenced on July 11, and he faces enormous fines or even four years in prison for each felony account.


Is Trump's Conviction Swaying Voters?

Although the Ohio polls show a decline in support for Trump just after the jury dictated its verdict, there is no evidence to show that voters were swayed by the former-presidents conviction.

A courtroom sketch depicting former President Donald Trump sitting at a table next to a man with dark hair. Three bailiffs can be seen along with a judge sitting at the bench

Source: @Travis_4_Trump/X

As a matter of fact, before the announcement, more than 67% of voters reported that a conviction will make no difference to their November vote. And an almost unbelievable 25% of Republicans said they would be more likely to vote from Trump if he was found guilty.


Americans Are Once Again Voting For the Lesser of Two Evils

The 2024 presidential election is especially intriguing because it is only the second time in history that two former presidents have run against each other. Therefore, Americans know exactly what kind of economy, policy changes, and president they are voting for.

A photograph of the profile of former president Donald Trump alongside the profile of President Joe Bien

Source: @CNBC/YouTube

And while both Biden and Trump both have millions of supporters, they also both have millions of enemies. Many Americans absolutely detest the idea of having either man in the White House. Additionally, many Americans argue that neither candidate is the right choice, and yet, they have to choose.


More Torn Ohioans Are Voting for Trump Than Biden

Of the Ohio residents who have an “unfavorable opinion of both” candidates, 31% are voting for Trump and only 18% will vote for Biden.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stands at a podium with 'KENNEDY24' banners, gesturing with his hands raised, expressing enthusiasm as he speaks

Source: Wikimedia Commons

However, 18% say they are voting for Independent front-runner, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Therefore, some experts believe that Ohioans who previously voted for Trump aren’t turning Blue, but instead voting for the only man in the race who offers real change.


Trump Is Better, Even If He's Not the Best

While Trump has clearly lost some supporters in the Buckeye State, with a 7 point lead, he will still win the state in November. Even if some Republicans don’t fully respect the former-president’s controversial personality, they still believe he is the better choice over Biden.

Trump makes a 'crazy' gesture near his head during a speech.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia

The vast majority of Ohioans, both with the Republican and Democratic parties, say that Trump is better for their personal and business finances than President Biden.


Many Americans Will Be Voting With Their Wallets in November

The Marist Poll reported that only 39% of Ohio residents believe their family’s financial situations are better with Biden in the White House as opposed to when Trump was running the country.

A man pictured looking at financial data on his laptop while opening an empty wallet

Source: Freepik

Moreover, 59% of all Ohioans and 13% of the state’s Democrats, report that their finances were far better under Trump. At a time when millions of Americans are struggling to pay their bills, many will likely be voting with their wallets in November.


Who Will Be the Next President of the United States?

Popular polling website, 538, recently announced that their prediction software shows Biden winning the 2024 election 53 out of 100 times, with Trump only taking back the White House 47 times.

Digital illustration of the White House and an American flag with photographs of Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the foreground

Source: @Global News/YouTube

However, in regards to postulating the outcome of an election, 53 to 47 is still a wildly close race. At this point in time, even with the many polls being conducted in Ohio and around the country, it’s impossible to say for sure which former president will win the race this year.