Canada’s Fertility Rate Stayed at 1.26. Here’s What That Number Measures

When Canada’s fertility rate first fell to 1.33 in the figures reported for 2022, the number made headlines. The latest Statistics Canada fertility release, published in September 2026, puts the rate at 1.26 children per woman in 2025. That matches the revised figure for 2024. The difference between a record low and another new record matters here. Canada ended 2025 at the same level as the year before.

The longer decline is still there. It began in 2009 and was steeper between 2017 and 2023, apart from an increase in 2021. For anyone trying to make sense of those headlines, it helps to start with what goes into the number.

What 1.26 children per woman means

Statisticians look at how often women at each age gave birth during the same calendar year. They combine those rates to estimate how many children a woman would have over her lifetime if she experienced that year’s rates at every age. Think of it as putting a single year’s birth patterns together to make a picture of a lifetime.

That makes it possible to compare years and places even when their populations have different mixes of younger and older people. It also means the number can move when people have children at different ages. If fewer people give birth in their twenties this year, the fertility rate can fall this year. Some of those people may have children later, and the figures for those later years will reflect those births.

The national average covers some big differences

Eight provinces and territories were at their record lows in 2025, counting Saskatchewan, where the rate matched 2024. Yukon recorded the lowest rate in the country at 1.02. Nunavut was at 2.40, well above the national figure, even though that was a record low for Nunavut itself.

A record for a province or territory tells you how it compares with its own past. A national ranking tells you how it compares with other places in the same year. The two comparisons answer different questions. The fact that Nunavut was at a record low and still had a higher rate than Yukon is a good example of why you need both.

Parents are having children at older ages

Statistics Canada put the average age at childbirth at 31.9 in 2025, compared with 26.7 in 1976. The figure covers births of any order, including a first child or a fifth. The change has been going on for decades, which puts the years around the pandemic in perspective.

A lower rate in a particular year can reflect people waiting, having smaller families, remaining childless, or some combination of those patterns. To see how many children a generation actually had, researchers need to follow people over time. The latest annual figure comes out sooner and serves a different purpose.

The pandemic years didn’t look the same for everyone

Canada’s fertility rate rose in 2021 before declining again. A separate Statistics Canada study of first births gives a closer view of that year. Among the women it studied, the likelihood of a first birth rose in the highest-income families and edged down in the lowest-income families.

That study followed a specific group. The women were 22 to 39, employed, living with a spouse or common-law partner and had yet to have a child. The results tell us how first births changed within that group. They leave open what happened to people outside it and why any individual family chose its timing.

Family income and work were tied to first births

In 2017, women in the study’s highest family income group were about twice as likely to have a first child as women in the lowest. By 2023 the difference was about two and a half times. The researchers also found that, across income levels, women in public sector or unionized jobs were more likely to have a first birth than other employed women in the study.

Family income showed a bigger gap than women’s individual earnings. That distinction matters when two households have similar pay for one person but different resources overall. A study like this can show where the gaps are and how they changed. It cannot tell you that a particular wage, rent increase or change of job caused someone to have a child or wait.

How Canada compares with other countries

Statistics Canada compared 20 selected high-income countries in its 2025 release. Canada had the seventh-lowest rate in that group. France and Iceland each recorded 1.56 children per woman, and the United States recorded 1.57.

South Korea recorded 0.80, the lowest rate in that comparison. Its rate was up from 0.75 in 2024. Those figures capture two things happening at once. A country can have an especially low rate compared with its peers and still see an increase from one year to the next. The same care applies when a rate holds steady, as Canada’s did in 2025. One year gives us a reading. It takes more years to see if the direction has changed.

Why the population can still grow

Canada’s quarterly population estimates put the country at about 41.8 million people on July 1, 2026, up 0.2 percent from the previous quarter. That estimate counts how many people were living in Canada at that point in time. Births and deaths matter to the total, as do arrivals and departures.

So when you see a low fertility rate alongside a growing population, check the dates and what each figure counts. The fertility rate uses a calendar year’s births by age. The quarterly population estimate tracks residents, whatever their age, and includes changes that have nothing to do with births.

What to watch in the next release

The next set of figures will show if 2025 was a pause in the long decline. The tables by age and region can tell you more than the national number alone. Look at which ages changed and if the same pattern shows up across provinces and territories.

Birth records can tell us when and where births took place. Understanding family decisions takes other kinds of evidence, including studies that ask people about their plans and look at the conditions in which they made them. That’s the space between a national rate and the choices of the people behind it.